[Revealing Carbon Imbalances Among Chinese Provinces in Global Trade Through a Nested MRIO Model]

To investigate the carbon emissions and economic impacts arising from the participation China's provinces in global trade, this study analyzes carbon emission transfers between the provinces and other countries/regions. Additionally, the value-add-carbon emission imbalance among the provinces was also assessed by establishing a carbon imbalance index based on a compiled nested multi-regional input-output table (MRIOT) encompassing 30 provinces in China and 16 countries/regions worldwide. The results indicate that: ① Approximately two-thirds of provinces in mainland China received net carbon emissions from countries like the United States and the European Union, mainly in the less developed northwest, central, and northeast regions. ② International trade has led to significant carbon imbalances for China's provinces, with underdeveloped northwest regions experiencing the most severe imbalances. Specifically, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and Gansu Province exhibited much higher carbon imbalances than those of Yunnan Province in the southwest region and Shanghai and Guangdong in economically developed eastern and southern regions, respectively. ③ The disparity in industrial structure between eastern and western regions was a crucial factor contributing to trade-related carbon imbalances for provinces. Eastern regions primarily exported light industry, services, and electronic products, and southwestern region provinces exported agricultural products, with relatively low carbon emissions per unit value. Northern and northwestern regions mainly exported coal, steel, and chemical products, resulting in high carbon emission intensities. In summary, international trade has caused severe carbon imbalances for provinces in the northern and northwestern regions. Therefore, these provinces need to develop a new energy industry to lower the production-side carbon intensity and optimize industry structure. Furthermore, in future international trade negotiations, solutions should be proposed from the perspective of shared emission responsibilities to safeguard the interests of the underdeveloped central and western regions in China.