Influence of Quantitative Variables on Residency Match: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis
Bhagvat J Maheta1,2, Ashley Niu3, Ramy Khalil2
1Surgery, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, USA.
Cureus
|February 2, 2026
Summary
Scholarly activities like research abstracts, presentations, and publications are key for medical residency match success. Objective metrics, including United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) scores, also influence match probability.
Area of Science:
- Medical Education
- Residency Matching
- Graduate Medical Education
Background:
- The residency match process is competitive, with multiple application factors influencing a medical student's success.
- Objective, quantitative variables are crucial for analyzing match competitiveness.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify quantitative variables most strongly correlated with residency match probability.
- To analyze the influence of various application metrics on match outcomes across different specialties.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study (2013-2021) using Association of American Medical Colleges data.
- Analysis of predictors: USMLE scores, research experiences, abstracts, presentations, publications, volunteer, and work experiences.
- Radar plots used to determine influential categories for match probability per specialty.
Main Results:
- Research abstracts, presentations, and publications showed the highest association with match probability.
- United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 scores were highly correlated with matches in surgical specialties like Otolaryngology and Orthopedic Surgery.
- Quantitative variables were analyzed for percent variation across ACGME-accredited specialties.
Conclusions:
- Scholarly activities (research, abstracts, presentations, publications) are the most significant quantitative factor for residency matching.
- Standardized test scores play a vital role, particularly in competitive surgical fields.
- Future research should investigate the impact of qualitative variables like personal statements and letters of recommendation.
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