Dengue Incidence, Seroprevalence, and Expansion Factors from Active Surveillance, Brazil, 2016-2021

Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil and is underestimated by passive surveillance. To better understand dengue incidence, we conducted epidemiologic analyses among participants, 2-59 years of age, from the placebo arm of a phase 3 dengue vaccine trial. During 2016-2021, a total of 5,947 participants contributed to 22,028 person-years of follow-up. We identified and virologically confirmed dengue (VCD), Zika, and chikungunya infections. We observed VCD and chikungunya incidence heterogeneity by age, geographic location, and study year. Children 2-6 years of age experienced the highest VCD (2.33/100 person-years) and chikungunya (1.02/100 person-years) incidence. VCD peaked in 2019 (n = 148) whereas chikungunya peaked in 2017 (n = 51). VCD incidence rates from active surveillance were generally higher than those reported to the national passive surveillance system; expansion factor range was <1-9.5 by municipality. Active surveillance is critical to better understand and characterize dengue epidemiology.