An Epidemiologic First Principles Approach to Assessing Changes in the Frequency of Early Term Birth

Epidemiology, known as the cornerstone of public health, involves studying the distribution and determinants of health-related events in defined populations and applying these insights to control health issues. This is essential for understanding how diseases spread, identifying populations at greater risk, and implementing measures to control or prevent outbreaks. Epidemiology addresses not only infectious diseases but also non-communicable conditions like cancer and cardiovascular disease,...

The ability of a drug to produce structural deformations and functional abnormalities in the developing embryo or the fetus is called teratogenicity, and the drug producing this effect is known as a teratogen. Teratogenic effects include stillbirth, miscarriage, intrauterine growth restriction, and neurocognitive delay. A teratogen may affect the embryo at different stages of development, which is important in determining the type and extent of the damage. During blastocyst formation, the early...

The actuarial approach, a statistical method originally developed for life insurance risk assessment, is widely used to calculate survival rates in clinical and population studies. This method accounts for participants lost to follow-up or those who die from causes unrelated to the study, ensuring a more accurate representation of survival probabilities.
Consider the example of a high-risk surgical procedure with significant early-stage mortality. A two-year clinical study is conducted,...

Survival analysis is a statistical method used to study time-to-event data, where the "event" might represent outcomes like death, disease relapse, system failure, or recovery. A unique feature of survival data is censoring, which occurs when the event of interest has not been observed for some individuals during the study period. This requires specialized techniques to handle incomplete data effectively.
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time until a...

The establishment of the oral microbiome begins before birth, challenging the long-held belief that the fetal oral cavity is sterile. The presence of oral microbes such as Streptococcus and Fusobacterium in amniotic fluid suggests that microbial exposure may occur in utero, potentially through translocation from the maternal oral or gastrointestinal tract. This early colonization primes the neonatal immune system and sets the stage for subsequent microbial succession. Maternal health,...

In statistical epidemiology and health sciences, two essential metrics—prevalence and incidence—are fundamental for understanding disease dynamics within a population. These measures enable public health officials, epidemiologists, and researchers to assess the burden of diseases, allocate resources effectively, and design impactful public health policies and interventions.
Prevalence indicates the proportion of individuals in a population who have a specific disease or health condition at a...