Bridging Three Decades: Global Self-Harm Trends From 1990-2021 and Projections to 2040

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Mental Health Research

Background:

• Self-harm, encompassing nonsuicidal self-injury and suicidal behaviors, represents a critical global public health issue.
• This study analyzes worldwide self-harm trends, socioeconomic disparities, and future projections using data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021.

Purpose of the Study:

• To comprehensively analyze global self-harm trends from 1990 to 2021.
• To assess socioeconomic disparities and inequalities in self-harm burden.
• To project future trends in self-harm incidence, prevalence, and mortality up to 2040.

Main Methods:

• Extracted self-harm data (incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs) from GBD 2021 for 204 countries (1990-2021).
• Calculated age-standardized rates and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC).
• Assessed inequality using SII and CI; projected future burden using ARIMA models (2022-2040).

Main Results:

• Global self-harm deaths projected to rise to 829,853 and prevalence to 35,863,341 by 2040, a 131.9% increase.
• Age-standardized rates decreased globally and across SDI levels (1990-2021), with larger declines in females and high-middle SDI countries.
• DALY inequalities decreased but remained higher for females in lower-SDI populations.

Conclusions:

• Despite decreasing age-standardized rates, the global self-harm burden is projected to significantly increase by 2040 due to rising incidence and prevalence.
• Persistent inequities in self-harm burden are noted, particularly affecting females in lower-SDI populations.
• Urgent implementation of targeted prevention, intervention strategies, strengthened mental health systems, and addressing social determinants are imperative.