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Updated: Jun 30, 2026

Modeling The Lifecycle Of Ebola Virus Under Biosafety Level 2 Conditions With Virus-like Particles Containing Tetracistronic Minigenomes
10:11

Modeling The Lifecycle Of Ebola Virus Under Biosafety Level 2 Conditions With Virus-like Particles Containing Tetracistronic Minigenomes

Published on: September 27, 2014

A Metagenomic Biosurveillance Network for Emerging Infectious Diseases: A Simulation-Based Model.

Isabel Meusel1, David Manheim1, Oscar Delaney1

  • 1Isabel Meusel, MD, was a Research Fellow, Existential Risk Alliance, Cambridge, United Kingdom; and is now a PhD Researcher, Department of Primary and Long-Term Care, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands. David Manheim, PhD, is Director of Policy and Research, Association for Long Term Existence and Resilience (ALTER), Rehovot, Israel; and a Visiting Lecturer, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel. Oscar Delaney is a Research Manager, Existential Risk Alliance, Cambridge, United Kingdom. Daniel Greene, PhD, was a Senior Analyst at Gryphon Scientific, Takoma Park, MD; and is now a Technical Staff member at Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund, New York, NY. Rona Tobolsky is a Researcher, ALTER, Rehovot, Israel; and a Graduate Student, School of Public Health, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel. Hanna Palya was a Research Fellow, Existential Risk Alliance, Cambridge, United Kingdom; and is now a PhD Researcher, Institute for Global Pandemic Planning, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom. Naham Shapiro, MPH, is a Public Health Lead, ALTER, Rehovot, Israel; and a Research Assistant, School of Public Health, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel. Siddhanth Sharma, MD, MPH, was a Public Health Registrar, Metropolitan Communicable Disease Control Perth, Perth, Australia; and is now a Public Health Specialist, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia.

Health Security
|June 29, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Early detection of novel respiratory pathogens in Israel is possible with a metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) system. This surveillance approach, utilizing an SEIR model, could identify outbreaks within 68 days, aiding containment efforts.

Keywords:
Early warning systemsInfectious diseasesMetagenomicsPandemic preparedness/responsePathogen detection

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Modeling The Lifecycle Of Ebola Virus Under Biosafety Level 2 Conditions With Virus-like Particles Containing Tetracistronic Minigenomes
10:11

Modeling The Lifecycle Of Ebola Virus Under Biosafety Level 2 Conditions With Virus-like Particles Containing Tetracistronic Minigenomes

Published on: September 27, 2014

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Genomic Surveillance
  • Public Health Preparedness

Background:

  • Emerging infectious diseases pose significant global health threats.
  • Rapid detection and response are crucial for containing novel pathogen outbreaks.
  • Existing surveillance systems may not be optimized for early identification of novel respiratory pathogens.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and model a metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) surveillance system for Israel.
  • To estimate the cost and detection time for novel respiratory pathogens using mNGS.
  • To provide an open-source tool for exploring surveillance system configurations.

Main Methods:

  • Development of an open-source, interactive SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered)-based model.
  • Modeling based on 7 representative respiratory pathogens with pandemic potential.
  • Simulation of a national mNGS monitoring network in Israeli hospitals.

Main Results:

  • A novel pathogen with SARS-CoV-2-like characteristics could be detected within 68 days (IQR: 53-80) of initial presentations.
  • Detection occurs after approximately 213 total infections (IQR: 94-429) across Israel.
  • Annual cost estimated at US$24 million over 10 years for implementation in 6 major hospitals, covering 37% of the population.

Conclusions:

  • An mNGS surveillance system offers a viable strategy for early detection of novel respiratory pathogens in Israel.
  • The proposed system balances cost, detection speed, and population coverage.
  • The interactive model empowers policymakers to assess different surveillance scenarios.