Association of Body Mass Index Trajectories with Kidney Stone Disease: An Analysis Based on the NHANES Database

Body mass index (BMI), a key indicator of obesity, has been shown by numerous studies to be associated with the risk of kidney stone disease (KSD). However, existing research has predominantly focused on BMI measurements at single time points, thereby failing to adequately capture the long-term impact of dynamic changes in BMI on KSD risk.

Data for this study were derived from the NHANES database. Latent class trajectory modeling was employed to identify distinct BMI trajectories. Logistic regression models were utilized to analyze the relationship between these trajectories and KSD risk. Subgroup analyses were conducted to examine potential discrepancies in the BMI trajectory-KSD association across genders.

Four BMI trajectories were identified: slight increase (class 1), rapid increase (class 2), rapid increase to decrease (class 3), and slight decrease (class 4). Compared to individuals in the slight increase trajectory, those experiencing a rapid increase to decrease trajectory (OR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.04-1.70, p = 0.020) and a slight decrease trajectory (OR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.02-1.83, p = 0.030) exhibited an appreciably higher prevalence of KSD. Subgroup analysis revealed that, in the fully adjusted model, compared with males in class 1, those in classes 3/4 were associated with a 47% and 60% increased risk of KSD, respectively.

BMI trajectories with a rapid increase to decrease and a slight decrease were markedly associated with increased KSD risk, which was exclusively observed in males. This underscores the importance of monitoring dynamic changes in BMI and developing male-specific interventions.