[A mathematical model of the epidemic process in tuberculous infection]

The work was carried out in 1993-1995 with the use of the data on tuberculosis patients in areas of the northwest and north of the Russian Federation, collected on the basis of the statistical report card No. 33. The study included information on the viability and drug resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The development of the epidemic situation during the period of 1981-1994 was followed. Close correlation between the above-mentioned properties of M. tuberculosis and the main epidemiological data was revealed. The mathematical model of the epidemic process in tuberculosis, permitting the prognostication of the epidemic situation for the nearest year, was developed.