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Intervalos regulares entre los terremotos de Hawai: implicaciones para predecir el próximo evento
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|November 7, 1986
Resumen
Cinco terremotos moderados en Hawai ocurrieron cada 10,5 años. Este patrón sugiere que los futuros terremotos de Kaoiki pueden ser predecibles si la acumulación de tensión permanece constante, lo que ayuda a la evaluación del peligro sísmico.
Área de la Ciencia:
- Sismología Sismología.
- Ciencia de los terremotos Ciencia de los terremotos Ciencia de los terremotos Ciencia de los terremotos
- La geofísica es la geofísica.
Sus antecedentes:
- Terremotos de magnitud moderada han ocurrido en Hawai entre 1941 y 1983.
- Estos eventos sísmicos exhiben un patrón temporal y espacial regular.
Objetivo del estudio:
- Para analizar la periodicidad de los terremotos de Kaoiki en Hawai.
- Para investigar el potencial para predecir futuras ocurrencias de terremotos Kaoiki.
Principales métodos:
- Análisis de los datos históricos de los terremotos de 1941-1983. análisis de los datos históricos de los terremotos de 1941-1983.
- Examen de la ocurrencia de terremotos en un radio de 6 kilómetros.
- Evaluación de las tasas de acumulación de deformación y el volumen de tensión.
Principales resultados:
- Se registraron cinco temblores moderados a intervalos regulares de 10,5 ± 1,5 años.
- Los terremotos se agruparon espacialmente dentro de un radio de 6 kilómetros en Hawai.
Conclusiones:
- El intervalo constante sugiere que los terremotos de Kaoiki pueden seguir ocurriendo periódicamente.
- Las tasas de acumulación de tensión constante y el volumen de tensión apoyan la hipótesis de una actividad sísmica predecible.
- La instrumentación futura podría refinar las predicciones para los terremotos subsiguientes de Kaoiki.
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