美国总统大选中的反转:1836-2016年
Michael Geruso1,2, Dean Spears1,3,4,5, Ishaana Talesara1
1University of Texas at Austin.
概括
自1800年代以来,美国总统选举的反转,即大众投票的赢家失败,很可能发生. 接近的选举有40%的逆转机会,表明它们不是罕见的统计运气.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 选举研究 选举研究
- 美国政治 美国政治
背景情况:
- 美国总统选举有时会导致反转,即大众投票的获胜者不会赢得总统职位.
- 这些反转往往被认为是统计上的异常或罕见的事件.
研究的目的:
- 分析美国总统大选中大众投票逆转的历史可能性.
- 为了确定反向是否是统计学上可能发生的事件而不是偶然的事件.
- 评估不同历史时期的反转概率的稳定性.
主要方法:
- 对美国总统选举历史数据的统计分析.
- 计算基于大众投票边际的逆转的条件概率.
- 在不同历史时期的逆转概率的比较.
主要成果:
- 自1800年代初以来,在美国总统大选中,民意选票逆转一直是事先可能的.
- 大众选票差距在1点以内的选举,大约有40%的预期概率是逆转.
- 这种条件概率在历史时期保持稳定,尽管投票人口统计和政治格局发生了重大变化.
结论:
- 美国总统大选的逆转不是统计上的巧合,而是始终是可能发生的事件.
- 反向的相对罕见性归因于美国历史上有限数量的接近选举.
- 了解逆转的概率对于选举分析和改革讨论至关重要.
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