由于气候驱动的风险,自给自足农业社区的裁员
Nicolas Choquette-Levy1,2,3,4, Dirgha Ghimire5,6, Michael Oppenheimer4,7,8
1Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA USA.
Population and environment
|May 23, 2025
概括
小规模农民意识到气候风险,但犹不决地实现生计多样化. 极端天气事件,如干旱和洪水,导致农民更加依赖农业,可能使他们陷入贫困.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 农村的生计 农村的生计
背景情况:
- 气候风险越来越多地影响小农的决策.
- 生计多样化,一个关键的弹性战略,往往落后于气候风险意识.
研究的目的:
- 调查农民延迟生计多样化背后的机制.
- 分析信息,社会资本和过去的危险如何影响气候风险感知和适应.
主要方法:
- 在尼泊尔的奇特旺山谷对500个农户进行了调查.
- 截面和时间序列计量经济学分析.
- 检查农民的信息来源,社会资本和先前暴露于气候危害的情况.
主要成果:
- 气候风险显著,但多元化策略被认为更具风险.
- 干旱和洪水增加了对农业收入的依赖 (缩减回应).
- 财务和心理因素推动了这种削减,可能会加剧贫困陷.
结论:
- 恢复力建设的努力必须解决多样化的感知风险.
- 财务限制和损失厌恶显著影响农民对气候冲击的反应.
- 干预措施应考虑这些因素,以防止环境驱动的贫困陷.
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