Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 30, 2026
11:18
Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat
Published on: September 12, 2014
Predictable surprises: the disasters you should have seen coming.
Michael D Watkins1, Max H Bazerman
1Harvard Business School, Boston, USA.
Harvard Business Review
|March 14, 2003
Summary
Most unexpected business disasters are predictable surprises. Organizations can mitigate risks by recognizing, prioritizing, and mobilizing (RPM) to address psychological, organizational, and political vulnerabilities.
Area of Science:
- Business Strategy
- Risk Management
- Organizational Behavior
Background:
- Many "unexpected" business events are actually predictable surprises.
- These events, ranging from financial scandals to operational disruptions, can cause significant damage.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explain why organizations fail to prepare for predictable surprises.
- To introduce a framework for mitigating these risks.
Main Methods:
- The study identifies three key organizational vulnerabilities: psychological, organizational, and political.
- It proposes the Recognizing, Prioritizing, and Mobilizing (RPM) approach to address these vulnerabilities.
Main Results:
- Organizations are vulnerable to predictable surprises due to psychological, organizational, and political factors.
- The RPM approach, involving recognizing, prioritizing, and mobilizing, is crucial for risk mitigation.
Conclusions:
- Effective risk management requires a systematic approach to anticipate and address potential disasters.
- Implementing the RPM approach is a core responsibility for business leaders to prevent catastrophic events.
Related Concept Videos
01:42Schemas
A schema is a mental construct consisting of a cluster or collection of related concepts (Bartlett, 1932). There are many different types of schemata, and they all have one thing in common: schemata are a method of organizing information that allows the brain to work more efficiently. When a schema is activated, the brain makes immediate assumptions about the person or object being observed.
01:08The Availability Heuristic
A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):
01:12Hindsight Biases
Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now?
02:24Predicting Reaction Outcomes
Kinetics describes the rate and path by which a reaction occurs. In contrast, thermodynamics deals with state functions and describes the properties, behavior, and components of a system. It is not concerned with the path taken by the process and cannot address the rate at which a reaction occurs. Although it does provide information about what can happen during a reaction process, it does not describe the detailed steps of what appears on an atomic or a molecular level. On the other hand,...
01:18Steps in Outbreak Investigation
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
01:29Applications of GIS: Disaster Management and Emergency Response
Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is essential for risk identification, action prioritization, and resource optimization in critical situations like flooding and earthquakes. By integrating spatial and demographic data, GIS provides a comprehensive framework for emergency response.GIS integrates data layers, like rainfall intensity, topography, elevation profiles, and river levels, to model high-risk flood zones. These layers assess areas susceptible to flooding based on their...