Climatically driven synchrony of gerbil populations allows large-scale plague outbreaks

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Epidemiology
• Climate Science

Background:

• The great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is the primary host for Yersinia pestis, the bacterium causing bubonic plague in Central Asia.
• Long-term monitoring of great gerbil populations in Kazakhstan, initiated in the late 1940s, provides valuable data for ecological and epidemiological studies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the influence of climate forcing on the synchronized population dynamics of the great gerbil over extensive geographical areas.
• To establish the link between synchronized gerbil abundance and the potential for large-scale plague outbreaks.

Main Methods:

• Utilized long-term gerbil monitoring data from Kazakhstan.
• Employed autoregressive modeling incorporating the normalized differentiated vegetation index (NDVI) as a climate forcing covariate.
• Analyzed the relationship between gerbil population thresholds and plague persistence.

Main Results:

• Demonstrated that climate forcing synchronizes great gerbil population dynamics across large geographical regions.
• Found that synchronized gerbil abundance above a critical threshold is likely a prerequisite for large-scale plague epizootics.
• Climate change predictions suggest an increased frequency of plague epizootics in Central Asia over the next century.

Conclusions:

• Climate-driven synchrony in great gerbil populations poses an elevated risk for widespread plague outbreaks in Central Asia.
• Understanding these climate-ecology interactions is vital for predicting future epizootic patterns.
• Proactive monitoring and climate change adaptation strategies are essential for mitigating plague risks.