The System of Short-Term Regional Economic Monitoring in Moscow

Area of Science:

• Economics
• Regional Science
• Economic Statistics

Background:

• Effective short-term regional economic analysis is crucial for policy-making.
• Existing monitoring systems may lack the detail or timeliness required for dynamic economic environments.
• The need for integrated data sources for comprehensive regional economic assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and test a novel system for short-term regional economic monitoring.
• To enable detailed, timely analysis of regional economic performance.
• To provide monthly estimates of gross regional product growth rates.

Main Methods:

• Development of a hierarchical monitoring system with four levels: aggregated economy, key industries, major organizations, and small businesses.
• Integration of official national statistics and auxiliary data sources.
• Creation of a set of coincident indicators for economic forecasting.

Main Results:

• Successful implementation and testing of the monitoring system in Moscow since 2020.
• The system allows for detailed, short-term analysis of regional economic performance.
• Monthly estimates of gross regional product growth rate are achievable with a one-month lag.

Conclusions:

• The developed monitoring system is an effective tool for real-time regional economic assessment.
• The hierarchical structure and integrated data enhance the accuracy and utility of economic monitoring.
• The system's ability to provide timely growth rate estimates supports proactive economic management.