Strategies for Socioeconomic Development with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Scenarios and Realities for Russia

This article is a supplemented and updated version of the report at the meeting of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences with the participation of the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development on September 21, 2021. The authors analyze the main opportunities and risks of implementing the Strategy for the Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Federation with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050. The key role of the global climate agenda, determined by the leading countries of the world, primarily the European Union, in shaping the institutional environment that influences decision making in the field of national economic policy, is emphasized. It is argued that there is no automatic positive relationship between the race for so-called carbon neutrality of the economy by 2050, prescribed by the global climate agenda, and the achievement of the sustainable development goals set by the United Nations. Principles and approaches to reduce the risks of decarbonization of the economy are formulated. These provide for the integration of a set of measures to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions with those to adapt communities and economic systems to climate change, and harmonize the measures above with the national goals of long-term sustainable development. Estimates of the economic effects of implementation of various scenarios of the decarbonization of the national economy and the associated risks of the global energy transition for Russia are introduced.