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Foundational Aspects for Incorporating Dependencies in Copula-Based Bayesian Networks Using Structured Expert

Dorota Kurowicka¹, Willy Aspinall², Roger Cooke¹

¹Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands.

Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)

|November 27, 2024

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

This study advances expert uncertainty quantification for sea level rise by incorporating tail dependence in ice sheet models. Including these dependencies amplifies projected sea level rise, crucial for mitigation strategies.

Keywords:

Bayesian networks copulas expert judgment

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Area of Science:

Climate Science
Glaciology
Environmental Modeling

Background:

Accurate sea level rise projections are critical for climate change adaptation.
Quantifying uncertainty in ice sheet contributions remains a significant challenge.
Previous models often overlooked complex dependencies between ice sheet processes.

Purpose of the Study:

To advance expert uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections.
To incorporate tail dependence between ice sheet processes for the first time.
To improve the accuracy of future sea level rise estimations.

Main Methods:

Elicited expert judgments on correlations and tail dependencies between Accumulation, Discharge, and Run-off processes.
Utilized a Paired Copula Bayesian network model.
Propagated elicited dependencies through uncertainty analysis under global temperature change scenarios.

Main Results:

Incorporating positive central tendency and tail dependence increases the upper tails of sea level rise distributions.
This amplification is significant for evaluating mitigation strategies.
Jointly computing distributional and tail dependencies enhances uncertainty assessment for extreme values.

Conclusions:

Expert uncertainty quantification in ice sheet modeling is significantly improved by including tail dependence.
Accurate modeling of multifactorial processes requires detailed dependency analysis.
This approach is vital for robust sea level rise projections and effective climate policy.