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Transition in dynamic events: The 2020 lightning complex fires in Northern California as an adaptive system
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA.
Summary
During escalating crises, networks develop a synthesizing intelligence function to manage complex transitions. This system-wide intelligence aids decision-makers in large-scale operational systems during extreme events.
Area of Science:
- Organizational theory
- Systems theory
- Network analysis
- Collaborative governance
Background:
- Organizational theorists have long struggled with how systems transition to larger, more complex levels while maintaining coherence.
- Rapidly escalating crises present unique challenges to organizational adaptability and coherence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore how networks adapt during escalating crises.
- To investigate the emergence of a synthesizing intelligence function within networks to support coordinated action.
Main Methods:
- Drawing on systems theory, network analysis, and collaborative governance.
- Utilizing a case study of the 2020 Santa Clara Unit Lightning Complex Fire.
- Analyzing field operations data from Incident Reports (California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection).
- Developing a system dynamics model.
Main Results:
- A synthesizing intelligence function emerges within networks during crises.
- This function is informed by various types of intelligence.
- The synthesizing intelligence function influences the rate of change in operational systems during dynamic conditions.
Conclusions:
- A system-wide synthesizing intelligence function is crucial for decision-makers facing extreme events.
- This function facilitates effective anticipation of complex transitions in large-scale operational systems.
- Understanding this function enhances the management of organizational complexity during crises.
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