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Updated: May 9, 2025

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Coherence and the Conjunction Fallacy.

Annetta Snell1, Madison Burt1, Miron Zuckerman1

  • 1University of Rochester, NY, USA.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The conjunction fallacy, where a combined event seems more likely than a single event, is influenced by narrative coherence. Increased story coherence leads to more conjunction fallacy errors, while reduced coherence decreases them.

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Linda problemcognitioncoherenceconjunction fallacy

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Making
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • The conjunction fallacy describes the tendency to judge a conjunction of events as more probable than one of its constituents.
  • Previous research suggests narrative coherence may play a role in the occurrence of this fallacy.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of event sequence coherence on the conjunction fallacy.
  • To determine if manipulating coherence influences the likelihood of committing the conjunction fallacy.

Main Methods:

  • Participants were presented with three-event sequences designed to be either coherent or non-coherent.
  • Events were delivered through verbal, physical, or musical modalities across multiple studies.
  • The frequency of conjunction fallacy errors was compared between coherent and non-coherent conditions.

Main Results:

  • Participants were significantly more likely to commit the conjunction fallacy in the coherent condition.
  • Conversely, participants were less likely to commit the fallacy when the event sequence was non-coherent.
  • The effect of coherence on the fallacy was observed across different presentation modalities.

Conclusions:

  • Narrative coherence acts as a significant factor in inducing the conjunction fallacy.
  • The degree to which events form a coherent story directly influences judgment errors in probability assessment.
  • Understanding coherence effects is crucial for explaining and mitigating cognitive biases in decision-making.