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Sequential information preferences in uncertain decision making
Uma R Karmarkar1, John A Clithero2, Carolina Raffaelli1
1Rady School of Management, University of California, San Diego.
Journal of Experimental Psychology. General
|May 14, 2026
Summary
Most people prefer to assess risks before rewards when making financial decisions. This risk-first approach, linked to economic ambiguity sensitivity, influences choices and outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Behavioral Economics
- Decision Science
Background:
- Decisions are often dynamic, involving sequential information processing.
- The order of considering risks versus rewards impacts financial prospect valuation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate people's preferred order of learning about risks and rewards.
- To determine factors influencing this information-seeking preference.
- To assess the predictive utility of self-selected information sequences.
Main Methods:
- Conducted 11 preregistered experiments with 6,709 adult participants.
- Collected data from both in-person and online participant pools.
- Analyzed preferences for considering risks before rewards.
Main Results:
- A majority of participants preferred to consider risks before rewards.
- This preference correlated with sensitivity to economic ambiguity.
- Preference was not linked to a general need for structure.
- Self-selected information sequences predicted information-seeking behavior.
- Self-selected sequences also predicted downstream choice processes and outcomes.
Conclusions:
- People exhibit a consistent preference for a risk-first information-seeking strategy.
- This strategy is associated with individual differences in ambiguity tolerance.
- Understanding information-seeking order is crucial for predicting decision-making behavior.
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