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Comprehensive Resilience Assessment of Global Staple Food Trade Networks Based on Structural Evolution and Cascading
1School of Economics and Management, Shaanxi University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710021, China.
Foods (Basel, Switzerland)
|June 26, 2026
Summary
Global staple food trade networks for wheat, maize, and rice are vulnerable to disruptions. Analysis reveals network weaknesses and proposes strategies to enhance food system resilience against climate and geopolitical shocks.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Economics
- Network Science
- Global Trade Analysis
Background:
- Global staple food trade systems face increasing risks from climate change, geopolitical conflicts, and trade policy shifts.
- Assessing the resilience and vulnerability of these trade networks is crucial for food security governance.
Purpose of the Study:
- To construct and analyze directed weighted trade networks for wheat, maize, and rice from 2015-2024.
- To evaluate the evolution of network vulnerability and resilience using structural resilience and cascading failure models.
- To propose policy recommendations for strengthening global staple food trade network resilience.
Main Methods:
- Construction of directed weighted trade networks for wheat, maize, and rice (2015-2024).
- Application of a three-dimensional structural resilience framework.
- Utilisation of underload cascading failure models to simulate network responses to disruptions.
- Analysis of cross-crop substitution effects on network resilience.
Main Results:
- All three food trade networks exhibit scale-free and disassortative properties.
- Wheat network showed recovery post-conflict, while maize network's imbalance deepened, and rice network faces export dependency issues.
- Targeted attacks on key exporters can cause significant network collapse.
- Cross-crop substitution can enhance resilience but may propagate failures under simultaneous attacks.
Conclusions:
- Global staple food trade networks possess inherent vulnerabilities requiring strategic management.
- The impact of cross-crop substitution on resilience is complex, potentially exacerbating failures during widespread disruptions.
- Policy interventions are necessary to bolster the robustness of essential food supply chains.
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