"停止计数的人! " - - 如何报告部分选举结果,助长了人们对选举欺诈的信念
André Vaz1, Moritz Ingendahl1, André Mata2
1Faculty of Psychology, Ruhr University Bochum.
Psychological science
|July 24, 2025
概括
报告部分投票数量可能会产生累积冗余偏差 (CRB),导致人们怀疑选举欺诈. 这种偏见会影响人们的看法,即使最终的获胜者有较晚的领先优势,也会在研究中持续存在.
科学领域:
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 沟通研究 沟通研究
背景情况:
- 对于选举欺诈的信念,例如2020年美国总统大选,可以受到认知偏见的影响.
- 累积冗余偏差 (CRB) 可能会根据报告的选票计数顺序 skew 对选举结果的看法.
研究的目的:
- 调查报告部分投票计数如何影响对选举合法性的看法.
- 检查累积冗余偏差 (CRB) 在助长选举欺诈的怀疑中的作用.
主要方法:
- 通过模拟和真实世界的选举数据进行了七项研究.
- 参与者根据部分投票计票报告来评价选举的合法性和涉嫌欺诈.
- 累积冗余偏差 (CRB) 的影响在各种条件下进行了评估,包括干预和党派关系.
主要成果:
- 参与者始终倾向于早期的领先者,当最终的获胜者领先后,他们更有可能怀疑欺诈行为.
- 这些效应在模拟选举和2020年格鲁吉亚大选的真实数据中观察到.
- 欺诈嫌疑在投票计票的早期出现,尽管进行了干预,但仍然存在;党派主义并没有消除偏见.
结论:
- 连续报告选票计数可以放大错误的选举欺诈的看法,由于累积冗余偏差 (CRB).
- 修改选举结果传达方式可能会减轻这些偏见,并增强对选举合法性的信任.
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